Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a06…d62f other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$312 (-2%) realized −$399 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day155.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$4,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,118
sports 5% +$315
crypto 1% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -31.3% -37.9% 14% 14% -26.3%
≤30d 87 -31.3% -37.9% 14% 14% -26.3%
≤90d 87 -31.3% -37.9% 14% 14% -26.3%
all 87 -31.3% -37.9% 14% 14% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.9% 14% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -43.8% 14% -33.4%
15% -49.2% 14% -39.8%
20% -54.2% 11% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$33 · ×4.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,573
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 75
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions27
Markets (closed)87 / 114
History coverage4d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day155.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,387 $3,575 +$187 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $225 +$65 (+41%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $155 −$25 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $119 $89 −$30 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $65 −$15 (-19%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $21 $20 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $13 $19 +$7 (+50%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $6 +$4 (+150%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $87 −$86 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$323 +1506%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$38 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $30 +$250 +833%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $30 −$25 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,572.85 · official $4,572.85 (match) · 710 history records