Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a06…f5fe crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%46W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$6
crypto 12% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses46 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage528d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 04 $63 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $61 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $38 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $6,014 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $82 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $67 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $63 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $77 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $61 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $62 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 241d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $48 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $57 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 300d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 302d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $52 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $65 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 365d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 367d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.67 · official $81.67 (match) · 112 history records