Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a10…8090 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-24%) realized −$50 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$7
other 17% −$19
world 15% −$21
sports 2% −$4
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -54.9% -59.2% 0% 0% -72.4%
≤30d 5 -70.5% -73.3% 0% 0% -89.9%
≤90d 5 -70.5% -73.3% 0% 0% -89.9%
all 48 -28.7% -35.5% 31% 31% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 31% -31.6%
10% -41.7% 27% -38.1%
15% -47.3% 8% -44.1%
20% -52.5% 6% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage144d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 3¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $6 −$4 -60%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 10 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 10 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 10 $4 −$3 -71%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $3 −$1 -23%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 29 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 29 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET Jan 26 $8 −$5 -58%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 8AM ET Jan 26 $15 +$4 +26%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jan 26 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6AM ET Jan 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 6AM ET Jan 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 5AM ET Jan 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 5AM ET Jan 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 26 $3 +$1 +27%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 25? Jan 25 $2 $0 -22%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $1 $0 +33%
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 24 $2 $0 +18%
Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 24 $1 +$5 +350%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -70%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -75%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 24? Jan 24 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -79%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will J.D. Vance say "Afford" or "Affordable" 5+ times during the March Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "America" or "American" 20+ times during the March Jan 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $1 +$1 +138%
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -81%
CEHL: Liberec vs. Kometa Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 19h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $2 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 125d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 125d
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 125d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 125d
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 125d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 125d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 125d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 129d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 137d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 137d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 137d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 137d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? SELL No 1¢ $0 137d
XRP Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 140d
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 9AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.34 · official $7.34 (match) · 115 history records