Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a16…f468 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$977 (+5%) realized +$1,009 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate68%51W / 24L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days+$234
30 days+$903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1,041
other 24% −$121
crypto 7% −$10
tech 2% +$4
politics 2% +$14
sports 0% +$8
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -92.9% -93.6% 0% 0% -93.6%
≤30d 15 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 20% -1.8%
≤90d 47 -8.8% -17.5% 66% 19% -4.5%
all 75 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 19% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 19% -4.8%
10% -23.9% 13% -13.9%
15% -31.2% 4% -22.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$2,584
Realized+$1,009
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses51 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage221d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $1,500 $1,458 −$42 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1,100 $1,110 +$10 (+1%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $22 −$20 -93%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $755 +$176 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,364 +$336 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $300 −$11 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $475 −$9 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,380 −$238 -10%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $2,300 +$90 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 02 $211 +$12 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,596 +$482 +30%
Kash Patel out by December 31? May 27 $18 −$4 -24%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 27 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,158 +$101 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $1,400 +$48 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $1,380 +$26 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $500 +$29 +6%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $700 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $1,520 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 15 $18 −$17 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $17 −$9 -54%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? May 11 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Areeq Chowdhury win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral ele May 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 06 $37 +$17 +46%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 06 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 26 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Apr 26 $16 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 26 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 18 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 18 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the ne Apr 18 $18 +$7 +38%
Claude 4.7 released by June 30? Apr 18 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Apr 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Apr 02 $15 +$7 +47%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $23 +$1 +5%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $25 +$1 +6%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 21 $5 $0 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 21 $23 +$2 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 21 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,102 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,515 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $755 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 71¢ $289 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $466 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $475 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 74¢ $300 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,364 11d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2,142 12d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2,380 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,390 19d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,300 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,296 28d
Kash Patel out by December 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 28d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 28d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum SELL Yes 69¢ $19 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $158 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $300 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,400 34d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $1,406 34d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $1,380 36d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $63 36d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $301 36d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 36d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,020 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,584.02 · official $2,584.02 (match) · 180 history records