Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a17…38b0 other 1365 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,873 (+3%) realized +$3,857 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1345W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$393
other 35% +$1,319
world 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +105.5% +85.9% 100% 5% -7.8%
≤30d 93 +46.6% +32.7% 98% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 1363 +8.2% -2.1% 99% 1% -8.8%
all 1363 +8.2% -2.1% 99% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 1% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 1% -17.5%
15% -20.0% 1% -25.5%
20% -27.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.22 per $1 lost it wins $8.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3,857
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1345 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1363 / 1365
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$88
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots Yes 50¢ 75¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots Yes 50¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+4950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $84 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $264 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Jun 21 $53 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots Jun 21 $79 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $399 +$2 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Junya Itō: 1+ goals Jun 21 $143 +$1 +0%
Ao Tanaka: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $448 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 0 Avaí FC? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$185 +9514%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Will Steve Garcia win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Guatemala? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Guatemala? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Guatemala? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 07 $50 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Venezuela 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $300 $0 +0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $451 +$3 +1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $159 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $300 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 06 $71 +$1 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $346 +$1 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Chelsea Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 06 $163 +$2 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Ketlen Souza win by KO or TKO? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 06 $197 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $0 +$2 +4900%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $6 +$23 +400%
Timofey Skatov vs. Vilius Gaubas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $71 $0 +0%
Gambia leading at halftime? May 31 $10 $0 +5%
IR Iran vs. Gambia: Draw at halftime? May 31 $90 $0 +0%
O/U 0.5 Rounds May 31 $0 $0 -97%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 31 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $84 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $264 1h
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Ao Tanaka: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots BUY Yes $0 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $38 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $298 1h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $19 2h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $18 2h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $34 2h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $84 2h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $79 2h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $450 4d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $248 4d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: Londrina EC 1 - 0 Avaí FC? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
O/U 0.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $103 6d
O/U 0.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.32 · official $36.32 (match) · 3500 history records