Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a1a…f6d8 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-3%) realized −$191 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%111W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$22
14 days−$16
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$130
other 42% −$95
tech 14% −$19
sports 2% +$3
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 83% 8% -5.6%
≤30d 104 -3.9% -13.0% 88% 8% -14.7%
≤90d 127 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 9% -12.8%
all 127 -3.4% -12.6% 87% 9% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 9% -12.8%
10% -20.9% 2% -21.2%
15% -28.6% 2% -28.8%
20% -35.6% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$29 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$191
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses111 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage64d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 17? Down 92¢ 51¢ $46 $26 −$21 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$15 +96%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $70 $0 -1%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$3 +5%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $16 $0 +2%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +5%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $24 +$1 +4%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +2%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $59 +$1 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $40 $0 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $74 +$1 +1%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $51 $0 +1%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +1%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +4%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $27 +$3 +10%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $94 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $39 +$1 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $19 1h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $35 1h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $16 14h
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 98¢ $49 2d
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 96¢ $10 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 98¢ $48 5d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 95¢ $30 5d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 98¢ $30 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 98¢ $49 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 100¢ $50 6d
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $59 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 100¢ $50 6d
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 95¢ $56 7d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $50 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 100¢ $70 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $69 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 11¢ $1 7d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $30 7d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $16 8d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $20 8d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $30 8d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $18 8d
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 99¢ $20 8d
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 95¢ $30 8d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 98¢ $50 8d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 98¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.52 · official $25.52 (match) · 362 history records