Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a1b…02d5 tech 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$923 (-2%) realized −$923 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate83%104W / 22L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,316
7 days−$2,094
14 days−$3,541
30 days−$1,492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 57% −$1,002
other 35% −$1,496
sports 9% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.8% -31.1% 56% 56% -41.9%
≤30d 74 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 72% -13.4%
≤90d 126 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 64% -14.4%
all 126 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 64% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 64% -14.4%
10% -18.1% 13% -22.6%
15% -26.0% 1% -30.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$387 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$923
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses104 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage41d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $376 +$60 +16%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $1,356 −$592 -44%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $773 −$771 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 25? Jun 25 $234 −$234 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1,519 −$845 -56%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$9 +17%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Jun 23 $295 +$56 +19%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $406 +$47 +12%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $843 +$175 +21%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $959 +$211 +22%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $322 +$59 +18%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? Jun 18 $536 +$73 +14%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $320 +$75 +24%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,279 −$928 -72%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 17? Jun 17 $140 +$25 +18%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $414 +$67 +16%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $336 +$64 +19%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 12? Jun 12 $800 +$152 +19%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 12? Jun 12 $400 +$88 +22%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,204 +$259 +22%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $405? Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $399 −$398 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $400 +$40 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $398 +$61 +15%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $398 +$44 +11%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,196 +$182 +15%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $281 +$53 +19%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $398 +$70 +18%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$9 +17%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$5 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $399 +$49 +12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 8? Jun 09 $389 +$61 +16%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,161 +$194 +17%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $777 +$88 +11%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $590? Jun 05 $43 +$4 +10%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $365? Jun 05 $85 +$15 +18%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,099 +$117 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 5? Jun 05 $361 +$54 +15%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $186 +$29 +16%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $310? Jun 05 $385 +$45 +12%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $357 +$63 +18%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $357 +$35 +10%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $84 +$11 +14%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $733 +$159 +22%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 3? Jun 03 $366 +$86 +24%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 3? Jun 03 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 2? Jun 02 $399 −$399 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 84¢ $235 39m
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 84¢ $50 45m
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 84¢ $26 56m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 85¢ $188 56m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 87¢ $234 56m
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 85¢ $234 57m
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 88¢ $9 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 88¢ $97 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 88¢ $97 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 83¢ $234 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 87¢ $234 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 89¢ $234 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 84¢ $33 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $212 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $21 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 82¢ $36 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 87¢ $51 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 87¢ $96 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 87¢ $87 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 86¢ $11 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 86¢ $95 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 86¢ $95 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 86¢ $95 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 86¢ $8 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 90¢ $305 24h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 90¢ $305 24h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 81¢ $303 25h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 86¢ $303 25h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 86¢ $303 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records