Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a1c…5a9c sports 508 markets active 0h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+0%) realized +$184 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%182W / 305L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$956est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days+$36
14 days−$9,384
30 days−$1,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$594
other 15% −$1,442
crypto 11% −$499
politics 7% +$2,239
world 3% +$13
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -28.1% -34.9% 26% 24% -9.2%
≤30d 322 -20.0% -27.6% 33% 30% -11.7%
≤90d 435 -10.4% -18.9% 39% 35% -7.6%
all 487 -12.7% -21.0% 37% 33% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -8.3%
10% -28.6% 29% -17.0%
15% -35.5% 26% -25.0%
20% -41.8% 22% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$81 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses182 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$956
Open positions10
Markets (closed)487 / 508
History coverage369d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $76 $107 +$31 (+41%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 29¢ 16¢ $29 $16 −$12 (-43%)
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $6 −$20 (-75%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-83%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $435 +$208 +48%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $62 +$7 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $304 +$229 +75%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $304 −$264 -87%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $66 −$16 -25%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $753 +$539 +72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $253 +$369 +146%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $261 −$8 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $246 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $780 −$15 -2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $50 +$400 +794%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $407 −$305 -75%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 +$268 +132%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $367 +$581 +158%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 19 $98 −$82 -84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $247 −$14 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $252 −$15 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $567 −$555 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $60 −$49 -82%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $62 −$51 -82%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $65 −$61 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $45 −$40 -89%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $108 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $611 −$600 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$77 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $373 −$373 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $99 +$49 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $810 +$447 +55%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $35 +$38 +108%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $608 +$477 +78%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $15 −$14 -95%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 14¢ $14 7m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $52 7m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 29¢ $30 7m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $644 37m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 69¢ $68 46m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $20 53m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 55m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 55m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 90¢ $534 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $203 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $334 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $40 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 23¢ $50 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 8¢ $8 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $101 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $102 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $26 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 13¢ $13 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $66 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 2¢ $14 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor BUY 8¢ $51 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $253 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $254 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $261 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $249 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $753 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $765 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $780 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.44 · official $296.94 · 2019 history records