Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a1f…795f crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate84%52W / 10L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day69.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$4
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +10.1% -0.4% 84% 63% -5.5%
≤30d 62 +10.1% -0.4% 84% 63% -5.5%
≤90d 62 +10.1% -0.4% 84% 63% -5.5%
all 62 +10.1% -0.4% 84% 63% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 63% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 35% -14.5%
15% -18.6% 13% -22.8%
20% -26.6% 5% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses52 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day69.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 86¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $0.00 · 159 history records