Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a22…7650 sports 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$541 (-24%) realized −$541 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$310
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$551
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 30 -22.7% -30.0% 50% 47% -23.8%
≤90d 37 -31.7% -38.2% 43% 41% -32.1%
all 37 -31.7% -38.2% 43% 41% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 41% -32.1%
10% -44.1% 32% -38.6%
15% -49.5% 24% -44.5%
20% -54.5% 22% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$48 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage58d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 +$25 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 +$13 +42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $97 +$23 +24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$20 +101%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$16 -77%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 +$37 +91%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $280 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 +$56 +109%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $150 +$16 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $16 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $157 +$21 +14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $50 −$47 -95%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $70 +$70 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 14¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO 1¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $31 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL paiN 100¢ $56 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $43 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 55¢ $0 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 54¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 50¢ $41 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 71¢ $40 10d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 92¢ $46 10d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 72¢ $50 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 33¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 100¢ $41 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO 6¢ $5 10d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 49¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 25¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 100¢ $78 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 52¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 51¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 100¢ $295 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records