Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a22…7b00 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$369 (-1%) realized −$369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,363per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$3,741
other 27% +$1,191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% -3.5%
≤30d 10 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% -3.5%
≤90d 10 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% -3.5%
all 10 +16.2% +5.1% 80% 80% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 80% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 60% -12.7%
15% -14.1% 40% -21.1%
20% -22.5% 30% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,618 vs −$8,007 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7,363
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $4,836 +$1,557 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20 Jun 26 $2,963 +$1,693 +57%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U Jun 25 $5,051 +$2,491 +49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $13,065 +$2,580 +20%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10,009 +$3,053 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,291 −$3,250 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5,095 +$3,070 +60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,090 +$5,131 +101%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $12,803 −$12,765 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11,432 +$1,371 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,393 42m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4,836 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20 BUY 64¢ $981 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20 BUY 61¢ $1,000 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20 BUY 64¢ $981 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 66¢ $5,051 31h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15,645 31h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $13,065 33h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13,062 33h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10,009 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,291 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL No 62¢ $8,164 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $5,094 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL No 35¢ $1 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10,221 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5,090 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $12,803 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $11,432 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records