Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a27…54f7 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$1
other 21% +$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 38 +0.4% -9.2% 42% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage480d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$4 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -6%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $0 $0 +150%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 08 $17 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $2 $0 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $3 $0 -3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $41 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $41 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $40 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $45 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $46 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $39.10 (match) · 134 history records