Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a27…5b51 world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$88 (+15%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$28
other 23% +$57
world 20% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.3% +6.2% 25% 25% +9.6%
≤30d 5 +15.6% +4.5% 40% 20% +3.0%
≤90d 5 +15.6% +4.5% 40% 20% +3.0%
all 5 +15.6% +4.5% 40% 20% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 20% +3.0%
10% -5.5% 20% -6.8%
15% -14.6% 20% -15.8%
20% -23.0% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$3 · ×13.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.59 per $1 lost it wins $13.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $61 −$4 -7%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 26 $74 +$59 +80%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $58 −$2 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $332 +$28 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $56 1h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 1h
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $53 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL Yes 18¢ $133 22h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 22h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY Yes 10¢ $38 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $56 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $28 23h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $332 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records