Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a29…3cc9 weather 668 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-4%) realized −$221 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%371W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$78
14 days−$166
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$62
crypto 24% −$52
finance 7% +$6
other 6% −$183
sports 5% +$13
politics 2% $0
world 1% −$36
tech 1% −$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -12.9% -21.2% 31% 11% -12.7%
≤30d 208 -14.0% -22.1% 35% 13% -14.8%
≤90d 505 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 35% -14.3%
all 676 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 36% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 36% -13.6%
10% -23.0% 9% -21.9%
15% -30.5% 5% -29.4%
20% -37.3% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses371 / 305
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)676 / 668
History coverage225d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Yes 20¢ 99¢ $10 $50 +$40 (+396%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? No 49¢ 55¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 23? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 23? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Yes 30¢ 35¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 23? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 19? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 19? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C or higher on June 19? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 23 $0 −$4 -1506%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on Jun Jun 23 $2 −$4 -204%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$6 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $32 −$10 -30%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $36 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $28 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $11 −$3 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$7 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$13 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 22 $13 +$41 +313%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 22 $11 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $13 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $38 −$17 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 25¢ $8 32m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 49¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? SELL No 47¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? SELL No 50¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 24¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? SELL No 44¢ $11 1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 68¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 37¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 59¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 58¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 23? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL No 44¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 53¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.31 · official $94.23 (match) · 1887 history records