Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a2e…76ea politics 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
politics 26% +$1
other 26% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 21% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 21% 7% -10.8%
all 43 +0.6% -9.0% 26% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.9%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage322d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $101 −$7 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $3 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 4m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 8h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $26 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $6 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $20 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $13 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records