Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a37…2b20 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$5
politics 24% −$7
sports 8% +$33
tech 6% −$2
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +4.5% -5.5% 13% 10% -9.5%
all 100 +4.5% -5.5% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 10% -9.5%
10% -14.5% 9% -18.1%
15% -22.8% 9% -26.0%
20% -30.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage84d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $367 $0 -0%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $825 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $708 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $346 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $575 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $305 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $289 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $313 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $295 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $293 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $288 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $305 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $301 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 20 $324 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $298 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $326 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $325 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $318 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 28h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 11d
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 24d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $116 25d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $288 29d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $288 29d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $303 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records