Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a38…4498 crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$92 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 24L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$43
14 days+$70
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$37
politics 28% −$18
sports 15% +$31
other 12% −$6
world 2% +$5
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 47% -6.5%
≤30d 81 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 54% -3.9%
≤90d 81 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 54% -3.9%
all 81 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 54% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 54% -3.9%
10% -13.7% 38% -13.1%
15% -22.0% 26% -21.5%
20% -29.6% 19% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions19
Markets (closed)81 / 100
History coverage30d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $262 $247 −$15 (-6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 88¢ 85¢ $183 $177 −$6 (-3%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 86¢ 82¢ $111 $106 −$5 (-5%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 100¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+12%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 87¢ 93¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $102 $40 −$62 (-61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-20%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 60¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $157 +$31 +20%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$4 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $12 −$5 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Little Rock: Fajing Sun vs Jay Dylan Friend Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $71 +$11 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $22 +$7 +33%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $8 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $11 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $3 6h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 72¢ $3 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $813.34 · official $812.97 (match) · 267 history records