Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a3a…9675 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 22% +$1
politics 12% −$1
sports 7% $0
culture 6% −$2
economics 5% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 31% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 31% 6% -9.5%
all 47 -1.7% -11.1% 23% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage328d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $44 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $1 $0 -10%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $16 +$2 +15%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 02 $57 −$1 -1%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Aug 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $6 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $23 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $24 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $8 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $17 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $33 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $23 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.96 · official $39.96 (match) · 157 history records