Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a3e…cd83 sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,166 (+6%) realized +$1,996 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%93W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,652
7 days+$3,306
14 days+$1,910
30 days+$1,910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$863
other 5% +$1,186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +17.3% +6.1% 68% 63% +2.5%
≤30d 146 +6.9% -3.2% 64% 59% -4.4%
≤90d 147 +6.2% -3.9% 63% 59% -4.4%
all 147 +6.2% -3.9% 63% 59% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 59% -4.4%
10% -13.1% 46% -13.6%
15% -21.5% 35% -21.9%
20% -29.2% 29% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$173 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$1,996
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses93 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage30d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 66¢ 100¢ $330 $500 +$170 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $1,315 +$256 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $126 −$121 -96%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $1,204 +$1,027 +85%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $8 +$5 +55%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $319 +$215 +67%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $892 +$280 +31%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $441 +$675 +153%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$11 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$16 +146%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $718 −$178 -25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$14 +325%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$14 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $530 +$231 +44%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 +$57 +130%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $187 +$14 +7%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $192 +$18 +9%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $304 +$205 +67%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $231 +$148 +64%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $170 −$51 -30%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $336 +$190 +57%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $112 −$107 -96%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $187 +$10 +6%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $249 −$245 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $333 +$167 +50%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $422 +$84 +20%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $824 +$176 +21%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $937 −$432 -46%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $368 +$132 +36%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $427 +$73 +17%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $18 +$12 +67%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $903 +$97 +11%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $285 +$63 +22%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 40m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 98¢ $490 40m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $334 41m
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 21¢ $123 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 61¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 64¢ $8 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 49¢ $22 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $294 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $289 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 45¢ $10 2h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 33¢ $3 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 58¢ $294 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 59¢ $319 3h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 77¢ $78 3h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 87¢ $4 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $545 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $347 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $11 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $405 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 13h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $4 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 58¢ $294 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 49¢ $16 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 75¢ $408 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $12 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.61 · official $499.75 (match) · 330 history records