Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a43…3898 sports 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$170 (+1%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$78
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$582
other 23% +$559
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.6% -17.3% 35% 32% -8.7%
≤30d 79 -9.3% -18.0% 34% 32% -9.2%
≤90d 100 -17.5% -25.4% 32% 29% -17.0%
all 138 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 36% -8.1%
10% -24.8% 35% -16.9%
15% -32.1% 33% -24.9%
20% -38.7% 28% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$69 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 85
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage98d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $252 +$195 +78%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $355 −$24 -7%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 −$218 -72%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $294 −$262 -89%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$9 -29%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $31 +$5 +17%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 −$17 -6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $74 −$5 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$160 +105%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $203 +$197 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $27 +$8 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $41 −$9 -21%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$5 -15%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $603 −$47 -8%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $325 +$279 +86%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$22 -86%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$5 -21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $51 −$41 -81%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $227 −$115 -51%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $82 +$84 +103%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $133 +$157 +118%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$172 -85%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $299 −$222 -74%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $271 +$118 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $284 −$13 -5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$252 -50%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$97 -32%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$20 -39%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$17 -32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $506 +$256 +51%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 +$402 +99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $142 +$96 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$28 -56%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $154 −$104 -68%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $51 −$16 -31%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $455 +$86 +19%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$279 +137%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$103 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$154 +76%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$4 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $447 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $137 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $137 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $115 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $152 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $86 10h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $32 10h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $22 11h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 11h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $194 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $294 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $287 13h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 14h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 35¢ $70 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $74 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 17h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $400 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 31h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 50¢ $203 31h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records