trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 43% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 30% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -10.3% | -18.8% | 30% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 20 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 45% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $44 | +$1 | +1% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 19 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $38 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $16 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $4 | $0 | -9% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? | May 07 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 06 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? | Mar 17 | $4 | $0 | +0% |