Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a44…2820 crypto 841 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$534 (-1%) realized −$539 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%421W / 419L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$294
7 days−$1,235
14 days−$8,075
30 days−$4,273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,524
other 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +6.7% -3.5% 52% 38% -16.4%
≤30d 707 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 38% -14.5%
≤90d 840 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 41% -12.3%
all 840 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 41% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 33% -20.7%
15% -28.3% 28% -28.3%
20% -35.3% 23% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$55 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$539
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses421 / 419
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)840 / 841
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 63¢ 69¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $114 −$22 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$155 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$44 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $133 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$69 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$34 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$117 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$178 +2383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$13 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $909 −$228 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $766 −$555 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $205 −$180 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $411 +$65 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$34 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $306 +$98 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $43 −$23 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $153 +$50 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $35 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $54 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $23 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $35 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $61 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.15 · official $55.16 (match) · 3500 history records