Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a45…748d crypto 539 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,144 (-6%) realized −$2,144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%186W / 353L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$1,224
14 days−$1,128
30 days−$1,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -85.7% -87.1% 3% 3% -67.8%
≤30d 32 -78.0% -80.1% 6% 6% -60.4%
≤90d 497 -7.5% -16.3% 34% 33% -19.8%
all 539 -4.8% -13.9% 35% 34% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 34% -19.2%
10% -22.1% 33% -26.9%
15% -29.6% 32% -34.0%
20% -36.5% 31% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$63 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses186 / 353
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)539 / 539
History coverage107d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 539 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $272 −$118 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $168 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $178 +$265 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $112 −$104 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on May 26, 1PM ET? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $315 −$248 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $94 +$100 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $26 +$41 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $8 +$24 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 26 $42 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 26 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 26 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $166 −$166 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $216 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $74 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2295 history records