Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a46…ee7b crypto 151 markets active 3h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$615 (-7%) realized −$393 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%86W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$251
14 days−$341
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$171
world 45% −$252
other 10% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -8.5% -17.2% 63% 42% -13.5%
≤30d 144 -12.4% -20.7% 60% 40% -14.6%
≤90d 144 -12.4% -20.7% 60% 40% -14.6%
all 144 -12.4% -20.7% 60% 40% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 40% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 26% -22.8%
15% -35.3% 13% -30.2%
20% -41.6% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$393
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses86 / 58
Open positions7
Markets (closed)144 / 151
History coverage14d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $334 $291 −$43 (-13%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 78¢ 70¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-13%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $250 $133 −$117 (-47%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-65%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $71 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$22 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$34 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $163 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 2h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 78¢ $200 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 75¢ $300 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $74 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 26¢ $159 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $154 14h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $104 14h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $203 16h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.16 · official $838.16 (match) · 435 history records