Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a4a…9975 crypto 1640 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate89%1464W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 537 +0.3% -9.2% 90% 28% -7.9%
≤30d 600 -0.2% -9.7% 90% 28% -8.4%
≤90d 877 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 46% -9.0%
all 1640 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 28% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 28% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1464 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1640 / 1640
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 3500 history records