Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1A 0x1a4e…d20d other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$216 (+32%) realized +$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$163
sports 28% −$30
crypto 20% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +42.0% +28.5% 43% 43% +3.2%
≤30d 23 +42.0% +28.5% 43% 43% +3.2%
≤90d 23 +42.0% +28.5% 43% 43% +3.2%
all 23 +42.0% +28.5% 43% 43% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.5% 43% +3.2%
10% +16.2% 39% -6.7%
15% +5.0% 39% -15.7%
20% -5.3% 35% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$21 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $121 −$107 -89%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $41 +$30 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$16 -16%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$75 +369%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$32 +105%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$20 +195%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $15 +$29 +188%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$70 +682%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $33 +$55 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$37 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 6¢ $13 6m
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 53¢ $121 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $71 3h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $87 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 11h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $96 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 24h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 25h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $30 25h
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $7 26h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 26h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 37h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 46h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $15 46h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 57¢ $80 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $88 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records