Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a4f…beda other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+6%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$92
14 days−$55
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$13
sports 44% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -77.0% -79.2% 17% 17% -61.1%
≤30d 31 -14.3% -22.5% 48% 45% -7.5%
≤90d 39 -14.5% -22.7% 49% 46% -6.8%
all 39 -14.5% -22.7% 49% 46% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 46% -6.8%
10% -30.1% 44% -15.8%
15% -36.8% 36% -23.9%
20% -43.0% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage42d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$7 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$20 +246%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $18 +$10 +54%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $18 +$5 +28%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $18 +$10 +52%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) May 31 $18 +$10 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $29 +$24 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $29 +$27 +95%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $76 −$4 -6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $39 +$17 +43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 +$5 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $42 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 5d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $20 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 7d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $8 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 9d
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $8 11d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $28 12d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $18 12d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 13d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $18 14d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $18 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records