Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a55…fd0d other 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,020 (+11%) realized +$9,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%86W / 126L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,119
7 days+$1,571
14 days+$1,571
30 days+$1,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$7,233
sports 39% +$1,855
politics 3% −$314
crypto 2% +$66
world 1% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +30.5% +18.0% 57% 57% +17.0%
≤30d 38 +29.6% +17.3% 55% 55% +16.7%
≤90d 38 +29.6% +17.3% 55% 55% +16.7%
all 212 +6.6% -3.5% 41% 40% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 40% +0.5%
10% -12.7% 39% -9.1%
15% -21.2% 39% -17.9%
20% -28.9% 38% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$465 vs −$247 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses86 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage264d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $112 +$104 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $98 −$31 -31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $106 +$102 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $107 +$117 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $110 +$100 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 +$177 +172%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $493 +$445 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $528 −$520 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$8 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $45 −$10 -22%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $95 +$137 +145%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $109 +$101 +92%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $266 +$267 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $177 +$209 +118%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$136 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $108 +$104 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$28 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$74 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $234 +$272 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$239 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $356 +$255 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $233 +$217 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $66 +$75 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $104 −$92 -89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $113 +$97 +85%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $61 −$1 -1%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 07 $255 −$255 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 07 $122 −$122 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $2,268 +$3,355 +148%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04? Feb 03 $200 −$21 -11%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $200 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 03 $100 +$328 +328%
Rockets vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 Jan 31 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-21? Jan 31 $200 −$196 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 42m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $68 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $98 21h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $106 21h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $103 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $52 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $58 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $107 21h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $107 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $844 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $386 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $112 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $107 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $93 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $35 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $95 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $94 35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $159 41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $68 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $21 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $22 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $109 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1054 history records