Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a55…0dcf crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$428 (-22%) realized −$428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$854
other 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -48.7% -53.6% 23% 23% -50.6%
≤30d 48 -48.7% -53.6% 23% 23% -50.6%
≤90d 48 -48.7% -53.6% 23% 23% -50.6%
all 48 -48.7% -53.6% 23% 23% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 23% -50.6%
10% ← realistic here -58.0% 21% -55.3%
15% -62.1% 21% -59.6%
20% -65.8% 21% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$36 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage3d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $72 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$217 +277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$58 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$41 +159%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $59 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records