Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a57…ed9b
other · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage447d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $2 $0 +12%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will LaTanya Richardson Jackson win the Tony for Best Leading Actress Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 01 $23 $0 -1%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 30 $11 $0 +1%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$1
other 22% −$3
politics 12% −$2
economics 6% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $8 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $8 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $24 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $40 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $40 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $9 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $40 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $30 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $35 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 27% 0% -9.2%
all 53 -5.3% -14.3% 32% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records