Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a5a…0088 sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$348 (-2%) realized −$131 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%194W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$462
14 days+$601
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$724
other 1% +$60
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 62% -0.1%
≤30d 247 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 52% -11.3%
≤90d 334 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 53% -11.1%
all 334 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 53% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -11.1%
10% -21.4% 45% -19.6%
15% -29.0% 33% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 21% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses194 / 140
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions3
Markets (closed)334 / 337
History coverage47d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 60¢ 14¢ $155 $38 −$117 (-76%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $202 −$49 -24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$17 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $132 −$20 -15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$39 -38%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$10 -25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $60 +$35 +58%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $340 +$85 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$26 +51%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $106 −$20 -19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$7 -7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$91 +89%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $101 +$61 +61%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $101 −$2 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$62 +62%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $202 +$90 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$5 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$2 -2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $203 +$164 +81%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$64 +63%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$20 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$88 +87%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $321 +$34 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $403 +$137 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $367 −$365 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$11 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 −$4 -12%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$42 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $252 +$120 +47%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $30 +$20 +64%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $30 +$9 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $59 40m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $58 44m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $22 44m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $15 44m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $51 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 60¢ $74 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 56¢ $0 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 55¢ $147 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $101 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 80¢ $101 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 62¢ $49 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $51 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $67 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $101 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $50 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 32¢ $79 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $102 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $20 19h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 65¢ $101 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $62 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 76¢ $101 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 23¢ $10 21h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 61¢ $0 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 57¢ $28 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $96 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 29¢ $10 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $50 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 74¢ $50 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $50 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $30 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $58.59 · 777 history records