Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a5b…1439 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$339 (+3%) realized +$386 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 84L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$433
14 days+$792
30 days+$792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$506
other 15% −$116
sports 5% +$891
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 22% +13.9%
≤30d 81 +18.6% +7.3% 27% 25% +12.0%
≤90d 83 +18.0% +6.8% 27% 24% +6.5%
all 115 +2.2% -7.5% 27% 23% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 23% -6.9%
10% -16.4% 20% -15.8%
15% -24.4% 17% -24.0%
20% -31.8% 16% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$26 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage135d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$7 +23%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$116 +565%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 23 $783 +$69 +9%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $134 −$27 -20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$173 +170%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$119 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$157 +510%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $21 +$103 +503%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$14 -28%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $28 +$81 +294%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $80 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 802 history records