Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1A 0x1a5c…154b crypto 1476 markets active 13h ago coverage 50d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,697 (+59%) realized +$3,697 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%284W / 1109L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1,359
other 29% +$275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +188.3% +160.9% 23% 23% -22.2%
≤30d 497 +132.8% +110.6% 26% 26% -33.6%
≤90d 1393 +51.8% +37.3% 20% 20% -19.3%
all 1393 +51.8% +37.3% 20% 20% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.3% 20% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here +24.2% 20% -27.0%
15% +12.2% 19% -34.0%
20% +1.2% 19% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized+$3,697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses284 / 1109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1393 / 1476
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1393 Trades
no open positions (365 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Solana Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$14 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$4 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$10 +175%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$5 +427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$10 +839%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 15h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 34h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 35h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.93 · official $580.25 (match) · 3500 history records