Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1A 0x1a5d…eb17 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$18 (+5%) realized +$19 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$130per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-26.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-4.4%
≤90d	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-4.4%
all	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.7%	50%	-4.4%
10%	-33.7%	50%	-13.6%
15%	-40.1%	50%	-21.9%
20%	-46.0%	50%	-29.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$116 vs −$100 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage12d

Avg bet$130

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Jun 07	$187	+$116	+62%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$102	−$100	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	1h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	BUY Flavio Cobolli	20¢	$102	12d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5	BUY Over 3.5	61¢	$187	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.44 · official $99.44 (match) · 4 history records