Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1A 0x1a5d…a898 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$95 (+33%) realized +$101 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$80
crypto 16% +$30
world 10% +$9
sports 9% −$25
politics 7% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.0% -28.5% 42% 42% +26.3%
≤30d 12 -21.0% -28.5% 42% 42% +26.3%
≤90d 12 -21.0% -28.5% 42% 42% +26.3%
all 12 -21.0% -28.5% 42% 42% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 42% +26.3%
10% -35.3% 33% +14.2%
15% -41.6% 33% +3.2%
20% -47.3% 25% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$7 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +140%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$51 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.74 · official $33.74 (match) · 22 history records