Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1A 0x1a5e…dd61 crypto 34 markets active 7d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
crypto 24% $0
politics 12% −$14
economics 11% $0
other 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 0% -10.5%
all 34 -0.1% -9.7% 79% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage102d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $326 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $161 $0 -0%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $126 −$14 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 7? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 1? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 21? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 18? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 16? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 13? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 11? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 8? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $162 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $162 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 80¢ $161 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $161 7d
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 85¢ $30 7d
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 85¢ $13 7d
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 85¢ $42 7d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 75¢ $112 8d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 8d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 8d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $164 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $164 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $124 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $37 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $13 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $24 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 76d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 78d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 83d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records