Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1A
0x1a63…e745
weather · 638 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$50 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses559 / 69
Open positions10
Markets (closed)628 / 638
History coverage199d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 10 History 628 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 97¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 17? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 13? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 24? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 15? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$38
other 3% −$5
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$1
politics 1% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -1.6% -11.0% 93% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 402 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 599 -2.6% -11.9% 90% 0% -15.0%
all 628 -2.0% -11.3% 89% 3% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -11.6%
10% -19.8% 2% -20.0%
15% -27.5% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.6% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.59 · official $18.29 (match) · 1266 history records