Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a65…4cb9 world 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%76W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$2
world 8% $0
sports 8% −$9
crypto 7% +$2
economics 4% −$4
other 3% +$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 88% 12% -4.1%
≤30d 8 +10.8% +0.2% 88% 12% -4.1%
≤90d 27 +9.1% -1.3% 89% 33% -4.9%
all 93 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 19% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 19% -11.6%
10% -18.8% 9% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 3% -27.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$1,118
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses76 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)93 / 117
History coverage255d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $872 $872 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $8 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $1 $0 +39%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $1 $0 +47%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $8 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $1 $0 +15%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +32%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $6 $0 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $8 $0 +6%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $3 $0 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 05 $8 $0 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $6 $0 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $1 $0 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Feb 23 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 23 $2 $0 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 23 $3 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +6%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 22 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $872 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 BUY No 92¢ $3 4d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 90¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 72¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 4d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 41d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 42d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 94¢ $5 42d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $5 42d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 42d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $1 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 91¢ $1 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 65d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.68 · official $1,117.68 (match) · 473 history records