Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1A 0x1a6a…449d other 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$854 (-11%) realized −$880 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%41W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$48
14 days+$476
30 days+$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$217
sports 27% −$293
tech 6% −$58
crypto 2% −$133
world 1% +$14
politics 1% −$44
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.9% -36.6% 45% 40% -13.4%
≤30d 24 +69.1% +53.0% 54% 46% +20.7%
≤90d 27 +59.6% +44.4% 56% 48% +11.4%
all 107 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 32% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 32% -19.7%
10% -19.1% 27% -27.4%
15% -26.9% 21% -34.4%
20% -34.1% 17% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$55 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$880
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 66
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)107 / 121
History coverage229d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $170 $213 +$44 (+26%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $33 −$22 (-40%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+68%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 32¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $25 +$25 +97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $18 +$22 +121%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $38 +$12 +32%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $30 +$25 +81%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $192 +$8 +4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $188 +$46 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $305 +$45 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $25 +$19 +77%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$480 +2400%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$25 +172%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 26 $106 −$106 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $61 +$14 +24%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 09 $128 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Feb 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 12 Feb 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $81 −$75 -92%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 01 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $108 −$103 -95%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $43 −$43 -99%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $173 +$74 +43%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $50 −$27 -54%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $75 −$30 -40%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $14 +$86 +614%
Will "Run Away" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2 Jan 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jan 11 $61 −$61 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Jan 11 $66 −$66 -100%
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 6, Jan 11 $118 −$118 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $10 +$17 +168%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $23 +$16 +72%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $112 +$44 +40%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $174 −$6 -3%
Will Jensen Huang say "Happy New Year" during NVIDIA keynote? Jan 05 $7 +$13 +170%
Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA k Jan 05 $23 −$14 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 20m
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY 20¢ $10 22m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 23m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $59 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Argentina leading BUY 49¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $40 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $18 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 28¢ $15 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 75¢ $38 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $15 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: 1st BUY 22¢ $15 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 54¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 23¢ $20 3d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will E BUY 29¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.64 · official $365.12 · 400 history records