Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1A 0x1a6c…bb19 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$338 (+10%) realized +$338 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$386
sports 13% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.6% -45.3% 30% 30% -0.5%
≤30d 10 -39.6% -45.3% 30% 30% -0.5%
≤90d 10 -39.6% -45.3% 30% 30% -0.5%
all 10 -39.6% -45.3% 30% 30% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 30% -0.5%
10% -50.6% 30% -10.0%
15% -55.3% 20% -18.7%
20% -59.7% 20% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$90 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $498 +$253 +51%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $212 +$152 +72%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $123 −$112 -90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 −$70 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,815 +$553 +30%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $224 51m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $527 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $498 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $364 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $212 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $100 7h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 22h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $61 23h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $62 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $132 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $176 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 96¢ $170 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 89¢ $315 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 83¢ $589 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,116 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,572 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $41 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $201 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records