Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a6f…8df2 crypto 691 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$365 (+10%) realized +$207 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%99W / 588L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$12
14 days−$49
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$401
world 24% −$265
other 3% −$74
sports 1% +$154
economics 1% −$10
politics 0% −$16
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -27.2% -34.2% 9% 9% -5.7%
≤30d 144 -59.5% -63.3% 6% 4% -42.8%
≤90d 687 -34.6% -40.9% 14% 14% -33.7%
all 687 -34.6% -40.9% 14% 14% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 14% -33.7%
10% -46.5% 14% -40.1%
15% -51.7% 12% -45.8%
20% -56.4% 10% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$3 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses99 / 588
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)687 / 691
History coverage70d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$18 +152%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $16 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$179 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $24 −$7 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$26 -66%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$8 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 48m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $14 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $16 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 25h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $10 3d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.25 · official $23.25 (match) · 1347 history records