Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a70…d019 crypto 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$681 (-8%) realized −$634 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%35W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$27
14 days−$148
30 days−$1,234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$807
other 22% −$376
sports 5% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -18.1% -25.9% 34% 24% -8.8%
≤30d 111 -9.0% -17.7% 32% 24% -22.7%
≤90d 112 -9.4% -18.0% 31% 24% -22.9%
all 112 -9.4% -18.0% 31% 24% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 24% -22.9%
10% -25.9% 20% -30.3%
15% -33.0% 19% -37.0%
20% -39.6% 15% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$32 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$634
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses35 / 77
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)112 / 117
History coverage30d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $104 $71 −$33 (-32%)
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Up 25¢ 25¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 20? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $122 −$54 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$30 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $75 −$52 -70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 +$18 +10%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $149 +$22 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $107 −$47 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$49 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $75 −$46 -61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 +$14 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $349 +$237 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $381 +$146 +38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $87 −$7 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $196 −$3 -2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $253 −$11 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $209 −$7 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $313 +$115 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $97 −$91 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $179 −$96 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$22 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$29 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $245 +$73 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $27 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$96 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$42 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $70 −$9 -14%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9AM ET Jun 07 $28 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4AM ET Jun 07 $13 +$21 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $149 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $132 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $50 −$31 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12PM ET Jun 04 $223 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$22 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $133 −$79 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 04 $76 −$45 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$3 +276%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 03 $22 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$11 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $129 +$50 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 25¢ $54 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $40 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $23 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $23 52m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 3¢ $13 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 10¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 9¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $68 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 7¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 7¢ $32 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 6¢ $18 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 8¢ $27 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $112 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $162 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.66 · official $244.27 · 437 history records