Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1A 0x1a70…1739 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$67 (+10%) realized +$62 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate71%15W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day24.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+0.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+10.5%	+0.0%	71%	67%	-17.2%
≤30d	21	+10.5%	+0.0%	71%	67%	-17.2%
≤90d	21	+10.5%	+0.0%	71%	67%	-17.2%
all	21	+10.5%	+0.0%	71%	67%	-17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover24.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+0.0%	67%	-17.2%
10% ← realistic here	-9.6%	57%	-25.1%
15%	-18.3%	52%	-32.3%
20%	-26.3%	33%	-39.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +29% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$38 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized+$62

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses15 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day24.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23?	Down	66¢	72¢	$53	$58	+$5 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 23	$112	−$112	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 23	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 23	$32	+$26	+82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 23	$16	+$17	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$8	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 23	$16	+$17	+108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$10	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$3	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 23	$16	+$13	+85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 23	$19	+$7	+39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$11	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 23	$18	−$18	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 23	$32	+$17	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 23	$10	+$7	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$5	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 23	$50	+$25	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 23	$54	+$10	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 23	$52	+$2	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$96	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$16	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$15	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$52	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$32	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$18	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$50	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$54	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$52	2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 23?	BUY Down	66¢	$54	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.32 · official $58.32 (match) · 47 history records