Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1A 0x1a72…e57a crypto 24 markets active 13h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-13%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$52
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.5% -22.6% 61% 33% -24.8%
≤30d 24 -11.4% -19.8% 62% 42% -24.4%
≤90d 24 -11.4% -19.8% 62% 42% -24.4%
all 24 -11.4% -19.8% 62% 42% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 42% -24.4%
10% -27.5% 29% -31.6%
15% -34.5% 25% -38.2%
20% -40.9% 8% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$4 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$33 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $74 −$64 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$49 +48%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 13h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 29h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records