Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a73…2aba other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$84 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$28
sports 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.3% +13.3% 33% 33% -66.4%
≤30d 4 +18.2% +6.9% 25% 25% -59.7%
≤90d 5 -5.5% -14.5% 20% 20% -71.9%
all 5 -5.5% -14.5% 20% 20% -71.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 20% -71.9%
10% -22.6% 20% -74.6%
15% -30.1% 20% -77.0%
20% -37.0% 20% -79.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage83d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $210 $243 +$32 (+15%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $107 $132 +$24 (+23%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $19 $31 +$12 (+61%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$20 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $47 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $47 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 6d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $110 9d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 12d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $119 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 16d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 28d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 28d
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.90 · official $560.92 (match) · 52 history records