Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a75…1f36 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$75
14 days−$78
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$77
world 17% +$2
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 35% -32.9%
≤30d 37 -11.9% -20.3% 70% 22% -13.9%
≤90d 38 -11.6% -20.0% 71% 21% -13.5%
all 38 -11.6% -20.0% 71% 21% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 21% -13.5%
10% -27.6% 21% -21.7%
15% -34.6% 18% -29.3%
20% -41.0% 18% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage53d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 15? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$44 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 8-14? Jun 15 $133 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? Jun 09 $132 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? Jun 08 $131 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$5 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 6? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 6? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 5? Jun 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 4? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $157 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 01 $155 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $155 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $27 2d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2d
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $133 8d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $132 9d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $15 10d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $116 10d
Will XRP reach $1.40 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.57 · official $74.57 (match) · 71 history records