Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1A 0x1a80…ab48 other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1
world 36% $0
politics 9% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage288d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $42 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $78 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 70°F or higher on September Sep 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 14 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 14 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 10 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $8 16m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $30 16m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $39 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $39 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $19 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.80 · official $37.80 (match) · 152 history records