trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +46.0% | +32.1% | 75% | 75% | +47.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -29.8% | -36.5% | 36% | 36% | +3.1% |
| all | 20 | -46.5% | -51.6% | 30% | 25% | -20.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -51.6% | 25% | -20.2% |
| 10% | -56.3% | 25% | -27.8% |
| 15% | -60.5% | 25% | -34.8% |
| 20% | -64.4% | 20% | -41.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $50 | $42 | −$8 (-17%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $21 | −$20 | -95% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $21 | +$33 | +155% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $203 | +$142 | +70% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $21 | +$12 | +58% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o | May 14 | $62 | −$60 | -97% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 26 | $10 | +$9 | +89% |
| Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio | Apr 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Mar 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the | Mar 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 08 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | Mar 07 | $30 | −$13 | -45% |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | Mar 07 | $80 | +$30 | +38% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | Mar 06 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Games Total: O/U 2.5 | Jan 25 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Jan 25 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |