Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a80…6b2b sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$72 (-10%) realized −$65 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$136
other 25% −$1
politics 15% −$91
economics 11% −$80
world 8% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +46.0% +32.1% 75% 75% +47.7%
≤90d 11 -29.8% -36.5% 36% 36% +3.1%
all 20 -46.5% -51.6% 30% 25% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 25% -20.2%
10% -56.3% 25% -27.8%
15% -60.5% 25% -34.8%
20% -64.4% 20% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$22 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage147d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $21 +$33 +155%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$142 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $21 +$12 +58%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 26 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $30 −$13 -45%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $80 +$30 +38%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 06 $5 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 45¢ $21 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $21 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $21 23d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 11¢ $10 38d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 19¢ $52 38d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 38d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers $1 43d
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 80d
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 80d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 80d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 80d
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 80d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio BUY Yes 60¢ $20 80d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $10 94d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 97d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 34¢ $10 102d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes $10 104d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 33¢ $20 104d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? SELL No 98¢ $10 106d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 68¢ $110 106d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY No 96¢ $10 106d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? SELL Yes $6 106d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 106d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 106d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 107d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 107d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 147d
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 52¢ $80 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.59 · official $52.59 (match) · 33 history records