Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a83…343d crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+4%) realized +$116 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%39W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$15
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +3.5% -6.4% 59% 46% -10.0%
≤30d 78 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 41% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 41% -9.6%
all 78 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 41% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -9.6%
10% -25.0% 31% -18.3%
15% -32.3% 22% -26.2%
20% -38.9% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses39 / 39
Open positions7
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage11d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $160 −$26 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $129 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $84 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $130 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $73 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $78 −$32 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$20 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$43 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $29 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $12 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $32 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $121 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $102 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $33 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $96 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $124 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.87 · official $5.87 (match) · 273 history records