Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1A 0x1a83…39e8 politics 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$20
other 28% −$4
economics 14% −$2
sports 2% $0
world 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 101 -14.1% -22.3% 5% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -29.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -36.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage665d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season? Feb 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump jail Hillary Clinton? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Bird flu pandemic in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Bo Nix win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -5%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bears vs. Lions Dec 09 $0 $0 +18%
Will Kansas State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zac Taylor be the next coach fired? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Elise Stefanik for Education Secretary? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Nov 17 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 23h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 28d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $49 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $49 37d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $49 40d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $49 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 46d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 49d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 49d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $50 68d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $31 69d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $19 69d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 73d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 74d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $50 86d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $34 87d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $16 87d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 95d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 95d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $50 99d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 101d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 101d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 104d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records